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GUESSES ABOUT CHANGES IN PRICE OF COMMODITIES AND CURRENCIES

  1. Introduction

    25 August 2013

    We're not an investment adviser. Scrutinize potential investments including people involved in them. This Web site may have typographical and other errors. LBMA gold fixing prices for many years are on pages linked to from this page.

    We haven't guessed recently. When we guessed, we guessed clearly. Our gueses have a specific outcome and a specific time range in which that outcome must be achieved. None of our guesses come true the same day or the next day. Many come true in a few weeks. Because our guesses tend to quickly come true, their annualized profit rates tend to be high. We have made no guesses yet after 2011. Some of our guesses are that a prices will decline. Some ways to profit from a decline in price are CFDs (contracts for difference), options contracts, and short sales.

    The table summarizes guesses which appear below the table. The guesses pertain to prices of commodityies (almost always precious metals) and currencies.

  2. Guesses Summary Table

    NUMBER, DATE. GUESS
    BASE DATE, TWO RANGE DATES
    RESULT
    COMMENT
    18. 2011 November 18. Oanda.Com Silver in Polish Zloties Up 10% 23 November 2011, 25 November 2011 and 1 Novembe r2012 Base price (23 Nov 2011) was 105.2570 zloties. Ten percent higher is 115.7827.

    If an investor had sold on 2 November 2012 (the first day after 1 November 2012, the last day in which it was possible for the second prioce to occur), he would have sold at 103.3210 zlzloties (the Oanda price for that day), resulting in a losss of 1.936 zloties ([105.257 purchase on 23 November 2011]- [103.321 sale on 2 November 2012] = [1.936 loss over 345 days]). The loss of 1.936 zloties is a loss of about 1.839307599495 percent over 345 days, which is an annual rate of about -1.945934127002 percent. In other words, the loss was at an anuual rate of about -1.9 percent.

    Wrong
    17. Oanda Platinum Price in Yen Down 7%. 6 October 2011; 9 October 2011, 15 September 2012 The base price (6 October 2011) was 113154.0 yen, and 7% lower is 105233.22.

    2013jan13.
    The loss was 21241 yen ([6 October 2011 purchase price of 113154.0] - [16 September 2012 sale price of 134395.0] = 21241). An investor relying on our platinum guess would have lost 1.8771762376938 percent over 346 days, which is an anuual rate of -1.980258169812 percent (about -2.0 percent).

    Wrong
    16. 22aug2011. Oanda Gold/Platinum Ratio Up 6%. 26August2011, 30August2011 15September2012. The base date (26 August 2011) Oanda ratio was 0.96110, and 6% higher is about 1.018766. On 7 September 2011, the Oanda gold/platinum (XAU/XPT) ratio was 1.02250, whis about 6.38851 % above the base ratio. We guessed right.

    12 days. Roughly 194.31717 % annualized profit.

    Right
    15. 15August2011. LBMA Gold XAU Up 3% in Euros EUR. 19August2011, 22August2011 1April2012. The base (LBMA Euro pm fixing on 19 August) was 1280.843. Three % higher is about 1319.2682 Euros. On 5 September 2011, the LBMA p.m. gold euro fixing was 1345.59, whidh is about 5.05503 % above the base price. We were right.

    17 days. Roughly 108.53446 % annualized profit.

    Right
    14. 1August2011. Platinum XPT Down 3% in Swiss Francs CHF. 5August2011, 8August2011 15April2012. 10 August 2011. The Oanda platinum base price (in other words, 5 August 2011 price) was 1335.040 Swiss francs. 3% lower is about 1294.989. The Oanda 11 August 2011 price of platinum XPT was 1291.090. The second price was about 3.0108 % below the first. We guessed right. This was a contrarian guess when it was made because we guseed that a precious metal would decline in price.

    6 days. Roughly 183.15699 % annualized profit.

    Right
    13 10dec2010. Palladium (XPD) price will be at least $845.00 not later than 31 December 2011. 10dec2010, 10dec2010 31dec2011 On guess day (10 December 2010), the price was $749.0 according to Oanda. On 27 July 2011, the palladium XPD price was $848.0 according to Oanda. The price rose about 13.2176 %.

    229 days, roughly 21.06735 % annualized profit rate.

    Right
    12 27nov2010. Uranium prices will be at least $75.00 not later than December 2011. 27nov2010, 27nov2010 31dec2011. We guessed wrongly. Details are in the uranium discussion below (item 12), especially the 2 September 2012 paragraph. Wrong
    11 2nov2010. Silver (XAG) in U.S. cents up 10% 6nov2010, 1dec2010 31oct2011 Fixing on November 5 (Friday) was 2614.00 cents. Ten percent higher is 2875.40 cents. On 06 Dec 2010, the fixing was 2960.00 U.S. cents, about 13.2 % above the base.

    31 days, roughly 155.4193 % annualized profit rate.

    Right
    10 27oct2010. Palladium (XPD) in $ up 10% 6nov2010; 1dec2010 31oct2011. The base price was $687.00. Ten percent higher is $755.70. The 3 December 2010 p.m. fixing was 758.00, about 10.33 % above the base in about 4 weeks.

    27 days, roughly 139.64 % annualized profit rate.

    Right
    9 16oct2010. Gold price in pounds up 20% (same kind of guess as previous one) 23oct2010, 1dec2010 31dec2011 Base price was 842.786 pounds. 20% higher is about 1011.343. On 3 August 2011, the LBMA p.m. gold fixing was 1019.020 pounds (about 20.91088 % above base price). We were right. On 9 August 2011, the price was 1065.096.

    284 days, roughly 26.87 % annualized profit rate.

    Right
    8 10oct2010. Gold Price in Pounds up 3.25% (same kind of guess as guess 5) 16oct2010. 27oct2010 10oct2011 Base price was 852.503 pounds, and 3.25 percent higher is about 880.210. The 30 November 2010 p.m. fixing was 890.856 pounds (about 4.49886 % above the base price. (Incidentally, the p.m. fixing on 3 December 2010 was 894.861, about 4.97 % higher in about 7 weeks.)

    45 days, roughly 36.49 % annualized profit rate.

    Right
    7 10oct2010. Palladium (XPD) price in Pakistani Rupees (PKR) up 5%. 16 October 2010, 27oct2010 10oct2011. The 16oct2010 price was 51533.70. Five percent higher is about 54110.39. The 29oct2010 price was 54727.10 (about 6.187 % higher than the base price). We guessed right. Incidentally, the 14nov2010 price was 62465.30, which is about 21.2 percent higher than the base price.

    13 days, roughly 173.71 % annualized profit rate.

    right
    6 30Sep2010. Swiss franc price in $US up 3%. Below on this page, read the guess which is summarized here. 9Oct2010, 15Oct2010 30Sep2011. 9 October 2010 price was 1.03670. In other words, it took $1.03670 to buy one Swiss franc (CHF). For our guess (namely, a three percent rise in price) to be right, the price must rise to at least $1.067801. On 1 January 2011, the Oanda price was 1.06910 (an increase of about 3.1253 %). On 2 and 3 Janaury 2011, the Oanda price was 1.07070.

    84 days, roughly 13.58 % annualized profit rate.

    Right
    5 30sep2010(1oct2010). Gold price in pounds up 3.5 percent. (same kind of prediction as previous one). 9oct2010, 15oct2010 5apr2011 9 October 2010 price was 848.559, of which 3.5 percent higher is about 878.259 pounds. The 9 November 2010 p.m. fixing was 879.386, about 3.6328 % above the base price. Look below on this page for the guess of which this is a summary.

    31 days, roughly 42.7 % annualized profit rate.

    right
    4 24Sep2010. Gold price in poundsup 2.5% (same kind of guess as the previos one) 2oct2010, 10oct2010 31jan2011 2oct2010 (1oct) was 832.85, of which 102.5 percent is 853.67. 13 October 2010 p.m. fixing was 862.439, which is about 3.6 percent above the base price. Gold continued to rise.

    11 days, roughly 119.4 % annualized profit rate.

    right
    3 12Sep2010. Gold price in pounds up 2.5%. 2010Sep18, 2010Sep30 18Jan2011 price in pounds on the 2010sep17 was 813.953, of which 102.5 percent is about 834.30. The LBMA p.m. fixing price in pounds on 5 October 2010 was 838.057, which was about 103.0 percent of 813.953. Gold continued to rise.

    17 days, roughly 64.4 % annualized profit rate.

    right
    2 2010aug23. Gold price in $US up 5% (same kind of prediction as the previous one) 2010aug29, 2010oct1 2011sep30 29aug2010 price was $1223.50. Five percent higher is $1,284.68. The 22 September 2010 price was 1293.50, which is about 5.72 percent above the 29 August 2010 base price but it is not October 1 yet. The 1 October 2010 price was 1316.25, which was about 7.58 percent higher than the base price of $1223.50. Not bad for about 32 days. Gold continued to rise.

    33 days, roughly 83.8 % annualized profit rate.

    right
    1 2009oct29. Gold price in $ up 5%. 2009nov14, 2010jan1 2010dec31 $1202.25 on 7 May 2010 (about 6.4% above $1130.00 base price). $1256.00 on 18 June 2010 (about 11.2% above base price). Gold continued to rise.

    174 days, roughly 13.4 % annualized profit rate.

    Right.
  3. Guesses

    1. Painting:  Pompeo Massani, The Money Counter
      Pompeo Massani, The Money Counter
      Introduction

      The list of guesses below is summarized in the table above. Each item in the list below has a number and a date.

    2. List of Guesses
      1. Gold Price
        2009oct29

        We guess that the highest price of gold in 2010 will be at least five percent higher than at the close of 14 November 2009 as measured in U.S. dollars.

        This paragraph is written 14 January 2010. According to the LBMA (London Bullion Market Association) Web site, gold did not trade on 14 November 2009. The gold p.m. fixing was $1104 on the 13th and $1130.00 on the 16th. We shall use the higher of the two price ($1130.00) as the base price. Therefore, for our guess-prediction to be right, a 2010 price must be at least $1186.50 (105 percent of $1130.00).

        2010jun21
        The LBMA gold p.m. fixing price was $1202.25 on 7 May 2010 (about 6.4 perent above $1130.00) and $1256.00 on 18 June 2010 (about 11.2 percent above). We guessed right.

      2. Gold Price
        2010aug23

        When we state a price on a day, we mean, unless stated otherwise, the most recent price not after that day. For hypothetical example, the price on January first is the most recent price not after January first. When we state a price of gold, we mean, unless stated otherwise, the LBMA p.m. fixing price. Prices are LBMA p.m. fixing price in U.S. dollars unless stated otherwise. These generalizations apply to this page, not just adjacent paragraphs.

        There are two, gold prices, first and second. The first price is that on 29 August 2010. The second is the highest price in the period from 1 October 2010 to 30 September 2011. We guess that the second price will be at least five percent higher than the first.

        This paragraph is written on 5 September 2010. The 29 August 2010 price was $1223.50. Five percent higher is $1,284.68.

        This paragraph is written on 23 September 2010. The 22 September 2010 price was 1293.50, which is about 5.72 percent above the 29 August 2010 base price. However, it is not October 1 yet.

        This paragraph is written on 4 October 2010. The 1 October 2010 LBMA p.m. fixing price was 1316.25, which was about 7.58 percent higher than the base price of $1223.50. We guessed right.

      3. Gold in Pounds Strling
        12 September 2010

        There will be two, LBMA, p.m., fixing prices of gold in pounds sterling, U.K. currency. The first will be that of 18 September 2010. The second is the highest after September 30 but not after 18 January 2011. We guess that the second will be at least two and one half percent (2.5 %) higher than the first.

        This paragraph is written 20 September 2010. The eighteenth was a Saturday. The p.m. fixing price in pounds on the seventeenth was 813.953, of which 102.5 percent is about 834.30. The LBMA p.m. fixing price in pounds on 5 October 2010 was 838.057, which was about 103.0 percent of 813.953. We guess right.

      4. Gold in Pounds Strling: Two
        24 September 2010

        There will be two, LBMA, p.m., fixing prices of gold in pounds sterling, U.K. currency. The first will be that of 2 October 2010. The second is the highest after 10 October 2010 but not after 31 January 2011. We guess that the second will be at least two and one half percent (2.5 %) higher than the first. Do not confuse this gues with a different guess we made about the pounds price of gold.

        This paragraph is written 20 September 2010. The eighteenth was a Saturday. The p.m. fixing price in pounds on the seventeenth was 813.953, of which 102.5 percent is about 834.30.

        This paragraph is written on 4 October 2010. The previous paragraph (written on 20 September 2010) is the result of a clerical error in copying. That brief paragraph is true but irrelevant. We leave it in because we prefer not to retroactively modify these notes. In any event, 2 October 2010 was a Saturday. The LBMA p.m. fixing in pounds on 1 October was 832.85, of which 102.5 percent is 853.67.

        This paragraph is written 14 October 2010. The 13 October 2010 p.m. fixing was 862.439, which is about 3.6 percent above the base price. We guessed right.

      5. Francs, Gold

        30 September 2010

        1. Swiss Francs

          There are two prices in U.S. dollars of one Swiss franc: the price of the franc on 9 October 2010, and the highest price between 15 October 2010 and 30 September 2011. We guess that the second price will be at least three percent higher than the first. We find currency prices using Oanda interbank rate statistics.

          14 October 2010. The 9 October 2010 price was 1.03670. In other words, it took $1.03670 to buy one Swiss franc (CHF). For our guess to be right, the price must rise to at least $1.10699.

          25 November 2010. Our guess was three percent price rise. Three percent higher than the base price is $1.067801 (not $1.10699). For our guess to be right, the price in U.S. dollars of one Swiss franch (CHF) must rise to at least $1.067801.

          30 January 2011. On 1 January 2011, the Oanda price was 1.06910. On 2 and 3 Janaury 2011, the Oanda price was 1.07070. We guseed right.

          28 July 2011. We want to explain our remarks above. We predicted a price rise of 3% for the Swiss franc CHF. We miscalculated the new price (the price 3% higher than the base price). The miscalculated price really was more than 3% above the base price. However, the price of the franc then rose even higher than the miuscalculated price (which itself was higher than 3% above the base price).

        2. Gold in Pounds Strling: Three

          1 October 2010

          There will be two, LBMA, p.m., fixing prices of gold in pounds sterling, U.K. currency. The first will be that of 9 October 2010. The second will be the highest from 15 October 2010 to 5 April 2011. The second price will be at least 3.5 percent higher than the first, we guess.

          14 October 2010. The 9 October 2010 price was 848.559, of which 3.5 percent higher is about 878.259 pounds.

          25 November 2010. The 9 October 2010 p.m. fixing was 879.386. We guessed right.

          16August2011. This is a correction paragraph. Above, we guessed that the price would rise at least 3.5% above the 9 October 2010 base price, and we were right. The guessed increase in prise took about a month from the base date. Our guess came true on 9 November 2010 (not on 9 October 2010).

      6. (See the entry above, which corresponds to rows 5 and 6 in the summary table.)
      7. Gold in Pounds, Gold Palladium

        10 October 2010

        1. Gold in Pounds Sterling: Four

          There will be two, LBMA, p.m., fixing prices of gold in pounds sterling, U.K. currency. The first will be that of 16 October 2010. The second will be the highest from 27 October 2010 to 10 October 2011. The second price will be at least 3.25 percent higher than the first, we guess.

          26 October 2010. The 16th was a Sarurday. The 15 October 2010 Gold price was 852.503 pounds, and 3.25 percent higher is about 880.210.

          4 December 2010. The 30 November 2010 p.m. fixing was 890.856 pounds. (Incidentally, the p.m. fixing on 3 December 2010 was 894.861, about 4.97 % higher in about 7 weeks.) We guessed right.

        2. Palladium in Pakistani Rupees

          There will be two, Oanda "interbank rate" prices of palladium (XPD) in Pakistani rupees. The first will be that of 16 October 2010. The second will be the highest from 27 October 2010 to 10 October 2011. The second price will be at least five percent higher than the first, we guess.

          26 October 2010. The 16 October 2010 price (in other words, base price) was 51533.70. Five percent higher is about 54110.39.

          15 November 2010. The 29 October 2010 price was 54727.10. We guessed right. Incidentally, the 14 November 2010 price was 62465.30, which is about 21.2 percent higher than the base price.

      8. (See the entry above, which corresponds to rows 7 and 8 in the summary table.)
      9. Gold in pounds

        16 October 2010

        There will be two, LBMA, gold, p.m., fixing prices of gold in the U.K. pound: on 23 October 2010 (base price), and the highest price in the period from 1 December 2010 to 31 December 2011. The second will be at least twenty percent higher than the first.

        26 October 2010. The 23rd was a Sarurday. The 22nd's price was 842.786 pounds, and 20 percent higher is about 1011.343.

        10 August 2011. On 3 August 2011, the LBMA p.m. gold fixing was 1019.020 pounds. We were right. On 9 August 2011, the price was 1065.096.

      10. Palladium (XPD) in Dollars

        27 October 2010

        There will be two, LPPM, p.m., fixing prices of palladium in the U.S. dollar: the price on 6 November 2010, and the highest price from 1 December 2010 to 31 October 2011. We guess that the second price will be at least ten percent higher than the first.

        6 November 2010. The 6th is a Saturday. The price on the fifith was $687.00. Ten percent higher is $755.70.

        4 December 2010. The 3 December 2010 p.m. fixing was 758.00, about 10.33 % above the base in about 4 weeks. We guessed right.

      11. Silver (XAG) in U.S. Cents

        2 November 2010

        There will be two, LBMA, p.m., fixing prices of silver (XAG) in U.S. cents per troy ounce: the price on 6 November 2010, and the highest price from 1 December 2010 to 31 October 2011. We guess that the second price will be at least ten percent higher than the first.

        6 November 2010. The sixth is a Saturday. LBMA does not have a.m. and p.m. fixing prices for silver. LBMA merely has one, daily fixing for silver. If the daily fixing happens to be after noon, it would be a p.m. fixing. In any event, the fixing on the fifth was 2614.00 cents. Ten percent higher is 2875.40 cents.

        8 December 2010. On 06 Dec 2010, the fixing was 2960.00, about 13.2 % above the base. We were right.

      12. Uranium in $US

        27 November 2010

        The Cameco, average uranium prices will be at least $75.00 not later than December 2011.

        5 December 2010. The uranium guess was made 27 November 2010, when the most recent Cameco, average uranium prices was for October 2010, which was $52.00. That price, like all Cameco prices we use, seems to be the average of month's end, spot prices published by Ux Consulting and Trade Tech. Today the November average is available. It's $60.63. Incidentally, there are thinly traded uranium (UxC, U3O8) futures contrats.

        28 July 2011 11. NYMEX UX Uranium futuresprices are not what we predict although the commodity is the same.

        2 September 2012.
        The price rose and fell but never reached $75.00. We guessed wrong. As far as we know, Cameco published, on its website, the average of month's end spot prices for December 2011 early in January 2012. If some one had bought at the average spot price at the end of November 2010 ($52.00), which is the first price we know of after our guess was published, and then sold at the average spot price at the end of Janaury 2012 ($52.13), which is the first price we know of after our guess was discovered to be wrong, he would have made $0.13, thriteen cents. Incidentally, the Cameco prices we cite are published on the Cameco website although web surfers may be unable to go directly to all of the webpages we link to above. We think that tt may be necessary to go to the home page, then to a site map page, then to a page about uranium prices (which includes a current spot price), and then to historical pages with averages of month's end spot prices.

      13. Palladium (XPD) up in $US

        10 December 2010

        Palladium has, on the Oanda Web site, a price of $736.00 for 9 December 2010. Not later than 31 December 2011, the Oanda price will be at least 845.00.

        28 July 2011. On prediction day (10 December 2010), the price was $749.0 according to Oanda.

        On 27 July 2011, the palladium XPD price was $848.0 according to Oanda. We were right.

      14. Platinum XPT Down 3% in Swiss Francs CHF

        1 August 2011

        There are two prices of platinum in Swiss francs. The first price is the price on 5 August 2011. The second price is the lowest price between 8 August 2011 and 15 April 2012. The second price will be at least three percent lower than the first.

        10 August 2011. The Oanda platinum base price (in other words, 5 August 2011 price) was 1335.040 Swiss francs. 3% lower is about 1294.989.

        20 August 2011. Our guess was right on 11 August 2011. This guess is intresting because we correctly guessed that a precious metal price would decline. Our contrarian guess was right.

      15. Gold XAU Up 3% in Euros EUR

        15 August 2011

        There are two prices of gold in Euros. The first price is the LBMA p.m. fixing on 19 August 2011. The second price is the lowest price between 22 August 2011 and 1 April 2012. The second price will be at least three percent higher than the first.

        20 August 2011. The LBMA Euro pm fixing on 19 August was 1280.843. Three % higher is about 1319.2682 Euros.

        10sep2011. On 5 September 2011, the LBMA p.m. gold euro fixing was 1345.59, whidh is about 5.05503 % above the base price. We were right.

      16. Oanda Gold/Platinum Ratio Up 6%

        22 August 2011

        The gold/platinum ratio is the price of an ounce of gold XAU divided by the price of an ounce of platinum XPT. For hypothetical example: if an ounce of gold costs $2 and an ounce of platinum costs $4, the gold/platinum ratio is 2/4 = 0.5 (one half). For another hypothetical example: if the ratio rises from 1.00 to 1.06, the ratio has risen 6%.

        There will be two ratios. The first will be the ratio for 26 August 2011. The second ratio will be the highest between 30 August 2011 and 15 September 2012. The second ratio will be at least 6% higher than the first.

        24September2011. The base date (26 August 2011) Oanda ratio was 0.96110, and 6% higher is about 1.018766.

        10sep2011. On 7 September 2011, the Oanda gold/platinum (XAU/XPT) ratio was 1.02250. We guessed right.

      17. Oanda Platinum Price in Yen Down 7%

        2 October 2011

        There will be two Oanda.Com prices of platinum XPT in yen. The first will be the 6 October 2011 price. The second will be the lowest between 9 October 2011 and 15 September 2012. The second will be at least 7% lower than the first.

        17October 2011. The base price (6 October 2011) was 113154.0 yen. Therefore, 7% lower is 105233.22.

        2013jan13.
        We were wrong. The loss was 21241 yen ([6 October 2011 purchase price of 113154.0] - [16 September 2012 sale price of 134395.0] = 21241). An investor relying on our platinum guess would have lost 1.8771762376938 percent over 346 days, which is an anuual rate of -1.980258169812 percent (about -2.0 percent).

      18. Oanda Silver Price in Polish Zloties Up 10%

        18 November 2011

        There will be two Oanda.Com prices of silver in Polish zloties. The first will be the 23 November 2011 price. The second will be the highest between 25 November 2011 and 1 November 2012. The second will be at least 10% higher than the first.

        29 November 2011. Base price (23 Nov 2011) was 105.2570 zloties. Ten percent higher is 115.7827.

        2013jan13
        We were wrong. The second price was not as high as predicted. If an investor had sold on 2 November 2012 (the first day after 1 November 2012, the last day in which it was possible for the second prioce to occur), he would have sold at 103.3210 zlzloties, resulting in a losss of 1.936 zloties ([105.257 purchase on 23 November 2011]- [103.321 sale on 2 November 2012] = [1.936 loss over 345 days]). The loss of 1.936 zloties is a loss of about 1.839307599495 percent over 345 days, which is an annual rate of about -1.945934127002 percent. In other words, the loss was at an anuual rate of about -1.9 percent.





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